The more important the competition, the worse the decisive arrow is shot
2 studies · archers measured
The summary today
Two studies of official competition data give opposite answers, and they measure different things. Across 2,210 head-to-head matches decided by a shoot-off at 120 events from 2013 to 2019, the shoot-off arrow is worth 0.9% less at World Cups, World Championships and the Olympics than at continental and national events, which is less than a tenth of a point; the drop, though, belongs to the women (minus 2.3%) and not to the men, and within the same tournament the shoot-off does not get worse in the quarter-finals, semi-finals or final. Across 6,374 recurve sets at three Olympic Games, the 2021 World Championships and a European Grand Prix, the last arrow of the set instead scores higher at the Olympics than at the other two events. A shoot-off is a single arrow shot with the scores level, the last arrow of a set is not, and neither study separates the importance of the event from the strength of the archers who reach it: the field at the Olympics is not the field at a Grand Prix.
Also phrased as: "the decisive arrow is worse at big events"; "big competition pressure"; "shoot-offs at the olympics"; "the last arrow in finals"
In practice
It is often said that at the competitions that matter the decisive arrow weighs more and is shot worse, and that this is why big events reward those who handle pressure.
Evidence
-
2020
For Archers Published later
Head-to-head matches from 120 events recorded by World Archery between 2013 and 2019, 2,210 matches decided by a shoot-off and 3,645 shoot-off arrows by adult recurve and compound archers, with the comparison made within the same archer: at World Cups, World Championships and the 2016 Olympics the shoot-off arrow is worth 0.9% less than at continental and national events (p < 0.05). On an average of about 9.1 points per arrow, that is less than a tenth of a point.
Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti
-
2020
Context Archers Published later
In the same sample the stage of the tournament adds nothing: compared with shoot-offs in earlier rounds, the one in the final is worth +0.009, the semi-final +0.008 and the quarter-final -0.002, none of them significant, and the combination of a late stage and a world-level event does not stand out either. The stakes go up, the shoot-off does not go down.
Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti
-
2020
Context Archers Published later
Split by sex, the drop at world-level events concerns the women only, with a shoot-off arrow 2.3% lower, while among the men the effect is not significant; the comparison between the coefficients for world-level and other events is significant for the women (chi-squared 34.03, p < 0.01) and not for the men (16.69, p = 0.475).
Choking under pressure in archery · Alessandro Bucciol, Alessandro Castagnetti
-
2024
Against Archers Published later
6,374 three-arrow sets from individual recurve matches at London 2012, Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020, the 2021 World Championships in Yankton and the 2021 European Grand Prix in Antalya, taken from the official results: in a quasi-Poisson regression the last arrow of the set scores higher at the Olympics (3,236 sets) than at the other two events (3,138), with a coefficient of 0.151 (0.143-0.160), t = 35.28, p < 0.0001. Competition conditions and the strength of the field are not controlled, sets from the same archer are treated as independent, and the measure is the last arrow of every set, not the arrow that decides the match. The paper does not convert the coefficient into points per arrow, and no conversion is attempted here.
Gender differences in skilled performance under failure competitive environments: evidence from elite archers · Chunhua Li, Yangqing Zhao
-
2024
Context Archers Published later
In the same paper the stakes of the set within the match do not move the last arrow: when losing the set means losing the match the third arrow scores slightly less than in sets with no consequence, but with coefficients from -0.02 to 0.004 none of the differences is significant. What changes the score is the event, not the moment in the match.
Gender differences in skilled performance under failure competitive environments: evidence from elite archers · Chunhua Li, Yangqing Zhao
Status history
- 2020 Reported The first study on the question reads 2,210 head-to-head matches decided by a shoot-off at 120 World Archery events from 2013 to 2019: the shoot-off arrow is worth 0.9% less at World Cups, World Championships and the Olympics than at lesser events, but the drop belongs to the women, minus 2.3%, and among the men it is not significant. Within the same tournament, on the other hand, the shoot-off does not get worse in the final rounds. A single study, on real competition data: reported.
- 2024 Contested Across 6,374 recurve sets at three Olympic Games, the 2021 World Championships and a European Grand Prix, the last arrow of the set scores higher at the Olympics than at the other two events, by a highly significant margin, and within the match the stakes of the set do not move it. It is the opposite direction, on a different measure from the shoot-off and without controlling for the strength of the field: two studies of archers point in opposite directions, so contested.
Related
Related articles
- The shoot-off in archery: what one arrow decidesHow the shoot-off works after a five-all, how often it picks the more precise archer (55 to 57 times in 100) and what that arrow is worth in competition.
- Head-to-head matches and qualification: how much more pressure, and what it costs the arrowsBefore head-to-head matches, national squad archers are more anxious than before qualification. What it costs the arrows, and why matches produce upsets.
Research lines
If this idea shapes your training or your coaching, look at what your own data say before you change anything.
See the full assessmentCite
Campagna, M. (2026). The more important the competition, the worse the decisive arrow is shot (Version 2). In Evidence Registry. Retrieved 16 October 2026, from https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/big-events-decisive-arrow
@misc{campagna2026_gareimportantifrecciadecisiva,
author = {Campagna, Matteo},
title = {The more important the competition, the worse the decisive arrow is shot},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {Evidence Registry, matteocampagna.com},
url = {https://matteocampagna.com/en/registry/competition/big-events-decisive-arrow},
note = {Version 2; accessed 2026-10-16}
}
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