Rain, humidity and temperature make no measurable difference to the score

The summary today

The answer splits in two, and almost all of it comes from one large study: 35,954 performances by 3,196 Chinese professional archers in outdoor qualification rounds between 2010 and 2016, each archer compared with themselves, with the day's weather matched to the competition site. On rain and humidity the claim holds: the day's rainfall has no significant effect on the score, partly because competitions are halted in heavy showers, and relative humidity on its own is never significant. On temperature it does not. When temperature is combined with humidity in the heat index, scores start to fall as early as 22 to 26 degrees, and above 34 they lose 0.82 points per arrow, 10.4 per cent, even with the sample's average wind. That is why the status is contested: the same study supports the claim on two factors and runs against it on the third. Nothing else shifts the picture, because the 2018 single case that found no difference between night, rain and fair weather and the ten women archers of 2019 with no link to temperature and humidity come from journals with questionable editorial standards, and a 2019 review confirms that there is no study at all of arrow flight in rain or at different temperatures.

Also phrased as: "you score less in the rain"; "humidity makes the arrow heavier"; "cold changes arrow flight"; "weather and score"; "shooting in the rain"

Evidence

• 2018
  Context Archers Published later

  One university recurve archer followed for two months, 648 arrows at 70 metres with two techniques in nine conditions (morning, midday, night, heat up to 45 degrees, rain with variable wind, calm, wind, cloud, and six arrows in two minutes): a classification algorithm confuses the scores shot at night, in the rain and early in the morning, and those shot in cloud, wind and calm, and the authors infer equivalent performance. There is no statistical test between conditions, the paper does not say which way heat goes, and the journal has questionable editorial standards: it counts as context and does not decide the status.

  Classifying the Archery Performance with Conditional Effects on Angular and Linear Shooting Techniques Questionable venue · W. P. Loh, Y. Y. Chong

• 2019
  Context Archers Published later

  10 women compound archers at provincial level, measured during menstruation and outside it: score shows no link with air temperature (r = 0.56 and r = 0.43) or humidity (r = -0.31 and r = 0.15), all with p > 0.05. Even sizeable correlations in ten people do not reach significance, and the journal has questionable editorial standards: this is context.

  Investigation factors that effect shooting performance in the menstrual period of female archery athletes Questionable venue · Sevinc Serin, Yakup Akif Afyon

• 2019
  Context Review Published later

  A review of the effect of the atmosphere on target archery, covering the literature up to 2018: the author finds no study of the effect of humidity, temperature and rain on arrow flight, nor of how the archer's clothing or equipment interacts with gusts.

  The impact of the atmosphere on target archery · James L Park

• 2021
  For Archers Published later

  35,954 performances by 3,196 Chinese professional archers in 460 outdoor qualification rounds at 57 competitions between 2010 and 2016, with archer fixed effects and daily weather from stations within 150 km of the competition site: the day's rainfall has no significant effect on the average score per arrow, and the authors note that competitions are suspended in heavy showers; in the specifications that separate temperature and humidity, relative humidity is never significant. Rainfall is a daily average for the area, not the rain that fell while the archers were shooting. The figures come from the working paper on SSRN.

  Adaptation and the distributional effects of heat: Evidence from professional archery competitions · Yun Qiu, Jinhua Zhao

• 2021
  Against Archers Published later

  In the same sample heat lowers the score. Compared with a heat index of 18 to 22 degrees, with no wind archers lose 0.25 points per arrow (minus 3.2 per cent) at 22 to 26 degrees and 1.07 points (minus 13.5 per cent) above 34; with the sample's average wind, 2.35 metres per second, the loss above 34 degrees is still 0.82 points, 10.4 per cent, against an average of 7.91 points per arrow. What matters is the combination of temperature and humidity: temperature alone gives smaller coefficients.

  Adaptation and the distributional effects of heat: Evidence from professional archery competitions · Yun Qiu, Jinhua Zhao

Status history

1. 2018 Not studied The first work to touch the question follows a single university archer for two months, 648 arrows at 70 metres in nine conditions including night, rain and heat, and concludes that the scores shot at night, in the rain and early in the morning cannot be told apart. It infers this, however, from the errors of a classification algorithm, without a test between conditions, on one archer and in a journal with questionable editorial standards: a venue like that does not decide a status, and the question still lacks a measurement that genuinely tests it.
2. 2019 Not studied A review of the effect of the atmosphere on target archery states plainly that there is no study of arrow flight under different humidity, temperature or rain. In the same year, in ten women compound archers, scores show no link with air temperature or humidity, with correlations as high as 0.56 that do not reach significance with ten people, and this work too appears in a journal with questionable editorial standards. The status stays where it was.
3. 2021 Contested The first large study arrives: 35,954 performances by 3,196 Chinese professional archers in 460 outdoor qualification rounds, with each archer compared with themselves and the day's weather matched to the competition site. The day's rainfall has no significant effect and neither does humidity on its own, but heat does: with no wind a quarter of a point per arrow is already lost at a heat index of 22 to 26 degrees, and above 34 the loss reaches 10.4 per cent with the average wind. The same study supports the claim on two factors and runs against it on the third, so the status becomes contested.

Related

Related articles

• Wind and weather conditions in archery: how to read and manage themHow far the wind moves an arrow and why, how many points it costs, how to read and correct for it, and what the data say about rain, cold and heat.
• Shooting in the heat: how many points go, who loses most and what reduces the lossHow many points heat costs in competition, where the loss begins, who loses most and what reduced it across 3,196 professional archers.

Related studies

• Theoretical workIl pavimento (The floor): how much of archery is real

Research lines

• 12 studiesWind and heat in archery: research since 2011
• 102 studiesFrom the total on the scorecard to the arrow's coordinates

Other claims in this domain

• CorroboratedAbout 150 points on a FITA round separate a club archer from a national-team archer13 studies · 492 archers measuredStatus since 2003
• CorroboratedAn archer's arousal rises with what is at stake, and keeps rising as the competition goes on3 studies · 23 archers measuredStatus since 2011
• CorroboratedArchers are more aroused in competition than in training5 studies · 50 archers measuredStatus since 2025
• CorroboratedAt 70 metres a top archer averages about nine points per arrow7 studies · 72 archers measuredStatus since 2012
• CorroboratedEven in competition at the highest level, most arrows are not tens4 studies · 3,212 archers measuredStatus since 2024

See all claims on competition and scoring